
Celebrity meteor Professor Brian Cox
The magnificent Brian Cox had the perfect final word on the asteroid that may – or may not – hit Earth in 2032
You might already have read about that asteroid that has a small but not entirely insignificant chance of hitting Earth in 2032.
It’s a one in 67 chance, but given the number of people who still insist on playing the lottery each week in the belief they might actually win, they are not out of this world odds by any means.
This very good thread by @Astro_Jonny went viral on Twitter and it’s the perfect primer.
The chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting out planet in 2032 is now 1.5%, or 1 in 67.
The OVERWHELMING likelihood is that the asteroid will miss Earth.
But for the first time ever, we might have to seriously consider a deflection mission soon.
Let me explain. (1/x) pic.twitter.com/nPPTSL8aeo
— Jonathan O’Callaghan (@Astro_Jonny) February 4, 2025
YR4 was discovered on 27 December. It's impact risk was raised in July to level 3 on the Torino scale, one of the highest ever.
For an asteroid this size, 40-100m wide (the length of a football field), the highest it can reach is level 8 – 100% chance of impact. (2/x) pic.twitter.com/2FUlyPEbO1
— Jonathan O’Callaghan (@Astro_Jonny) February 4, 2025
If it hit Earth, the asteroid would be comparable to a 10 megaton bomb – about 1,000 times more powerful than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
This would wipe out a city and surrounding area. You can read more in my @SciAm article here (3/x) https://t.co/GdyddtYQ2W
— Jonathan O’Callaghan (@Astro_Jonny) February 4, 2025
The impact date on Earth would be 22 December, 2032. This is where we've calculated the asteroid could hit (credit Daniel Bamberger/Wiki Commons).
A lot of the risk is over water, but quite a few populated areas too in South America, Africa, and Asia. (4/x) pic.twitter.com/8t2oqsWIid
— Jonathan O’Callaghan (@Astro_Jonny) February 4, 2025
Again, the chance of this happening is LOW. But, the most interesting thing is that we can't completely rule it out.
If that continues to be the case by April, we might have to do something for the first-time ever – start building an actual mission to deflect an asteroid. (5/x) pic.twitter.com/R1WIbpYfAC
— Jonathan O’Callaghan (@Astro_Jonny) February 4, 2025
And you can read more of that thread over here.
But the reason we mention it isn’t because of what @Astro_Jonny says – well, it is – but in particular it’s because it was picked up by the estimable Professor Brian Cox, who surely had the absolute last word on the matter. For now.
Fascinating thread – although it discounts the possibility that we live in a ‘Don’t Look Up’ world run by complete nob heads who won’t believe the calculations. https://t.co/bfFjD6I634
— Brian Cox (@ProfBrianCox) February 4, 2025
Never a truer word, alas.
Point of order – it’s knob!
— Reidy (@Reidy_777) February 4, 2025
It bloody isn’t.
— Brian Cox (@ProfBrianCox) February 4, 2025
Before we blow it up, can someone ensure that there are no Clangers on it?
— Kev Meredith ️ (@KymriskaDraken) February 4, 2025
Thanks Brian. Fortunately, when all the government services are cut, there won't be anyone to do the calculations.
— Jonathan O’Callaghan (@Astro_Jonny) February 4, 2025
READ MORE
Source @ProfBrianCox