A former Brexit minister put a positive spin on the Tories’ historic by-election losses and was mocked into next week
So exactly how bad were Thursday night’s by-election results for Boris Johnson and the Conservative party? It wasn’t just the double loss, it was the scale of the loss.
This is what happened in Devon.
– astonishing swing from Tories to Lib Dems in Tiverton
– seat has shifted from 24,239 Tory majority to 6,144 Lib Dem majority
– that’s the biggest majority to ever be lost in a by-election in history
— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) June 24, 2022
And it wasn’t much better further north.
– Labour majority in Wakefield of 4,925 is much higher than the party was expecting, Starmer will be pleased with that
— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) June 24, 2022
Except former Brexit minister David (now Lord) Frost was seeing the upside in these catastrophic numbers for the Conservative party and fortunately for everyone involved, he shared his big thoughts on Twitter.
1.
It's important to cut through the noise and spin on the Wakefield and Tiverton results.
Both are terrible for @Conservatives.
Neither is particularly good for @labour or @LibDems.
Why? (1/4)
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) June 24, 2022
2.
In Tiverton there was some Lab/Lib switching, but their total vote as a share of the whole *electorate* only went up from from 25% to 29%.
The Tory vote collapsed from 43% to just under 20%. Nearly 20,000 of our voters stayed at home. That’s why we lost. (2/4)
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) June 24, 2022
3.
In Wakefield turnout was extremely low. The Lab/Lib vote actually fell, from 28% to 20%.
But the Tory vote fell even further, from 30% to 12%. That’s why we lost. (3/4)
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) June 24, 2022
4.
So, in contrast to many ‘normal’ mid-term by-elections, these do not show strong protest votes for the opposition.
They show people who voted for us in 2019 refusing to come out and do so again.
We as @Conservatives must decide why that is, and what we do about it. (4/4)
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) June 24, 2022
Trebles all round!
Although it’s fair to say not everyone bought the case that Frost was making (not least because he managed to tag the wrong Labour Party – the one in Ireland – in his tweet).
I mean, to be fair, @labour got a total of zero votes. So, yes, this English by-election was a disaster for the Labour Party of Ireland. This is the kind of attention to detail that ‘got Brexit done’.
— Simon Smith (@smithsimonMEN) June 24, 2022
And here are our 13 favourite other things people said in response.
1.
The hilariously misplaced & yet staggeringly enormous self-importance of David Frost is one of the most reliably entertaining elements of the unfolding skip fire. There’s currently more first class comedy on the Daily Telegraph comment pages than on Netflix & iPlayer combined. https://t.co/OssT20OuuP
— James Oh Brien (@mrjamesob) June 24, 2022
2.
Unintentionally hilarious thread as Lord Frost "cuts through the noise and spin" https://t.co/ZMu9ZJgnWq
— Otto English (@Otto_English) June 24, 2022
3.
No, this is not how elected politics works. Defeating the Conservatives, in one case with a 29.9% swing, is good for the Lib Dems and Labour. https://t.co/jHUIMZrkzg
— Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) June 24, 2022
4.
This is, like, sub GCSE standard. https://t.co/OcXtvg5v4H
— Tom Peck (@tompeck) June 24, 2022
5.
And they say there’s no right wing comedy. https://t.co/XChcQ8jq8u
— Prof Paul Bernal (@PaulbernalUK) June 24, 2022
6.
Yes it's important to cut through the spin an explain that a 30% swing and victory in one of the safest Tory seats in the country is not that great for the Lib Dems. https://t.co/2GGN9Kumta
— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) June 24, 2022
7.
https://twitter.com/aoifegracemoore/status/1540240793008541698?s=20&t=THPaMR9F1rId04WdEPDK_Q
8.
This guy is rapidly becoming the funniest thing in British politics. https://t.co/9fYDzc1CU8
— Arthur Snell (@SnellArthur) June 24, 2022
9.
Check this out – pure comedy gold. Perhaps the most textbook example of clutching at straws I’ve ever witnessed. https://t.co/W1Efwio0O9
— Nick Tyrone (@NicholasTyrone) June 24, 2022
10.
“Cut through the spin” while spinning like a top https://t.co/8gcSqdLR6L
— Bobby McDonagh (@BobbyMcDonagh1) June 24, 2022
11.
https://twitter.com/secrettory12/status/1540233542487220224?s=20&t=THPaMR9F1rId04WdEPDK_Q
12.
Another audition tape has arrived….. https://t.co/A9NxT4HpwH
— David Aaronovitch (@DAaronovitch) June 24, 2022
13.
https://t.co/QsJ7ziENXm pic.twitter.com/WuUYujX0Je
— Steve Peers (@StevePeers) June 24, 2022
And if you’re still not convinced then this bloke said this about it.
Good analysis. Voters have lost faith in the @Conservatives and they don't think @UKLabour are the answer. Perhaps if they were given an option which wasn't just a uni-party, they might vote Tory again. https://t.co/9rrNckrSO0
— Laurence Fox (@LozzaFox) June 24, 2022
Case closed.
Although, in the interests of fairness and all that, Frost later added a PS or two.
Update. Some people, deliberately or not, seem to be reading my comments as suggesting @Conservatives don’t need to worry about these results.
That’s not my point at all. It’s a terrible night & we will lose if we don’t change things.
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) June 24, 2022
My point is that the remedy is in our @Conservatives hands. Our voters did not switch to the opposition parties in large numbers. They mostly stayed at home. If we can change that, we can win.
So we must make sure we understand why they did that, & then do something about it.
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) June 24, 2022
And btw, to all those who say I haven’t been elected so shouldn’t comment on elections (setting aside the fact it’s obviously an absurd thing to say in a democracy): any of us can look at an election result and do the maths.
LBJ’s first rule of politics – learn to count.
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) June 24, 2022
WANT MORE POKE?
Get the best of the day’s posts delivered direct to you by joining The Poke+ on Facebook
Source Twitter @DavidGHFrost
